The cricket world is up in arms at the latest allegations of fixing in the Pakistan-England tests. That ugly beast, which many hoped was well and buried at the start of the decade, has reared its head again. This time, the crime is spot-fixing, more subtle than match-fixing, and much harder to detect. A no-ball here or there is easily overlooked, but a thrown match is much harder to hide. Let’s focus on this easier-to-identify match fixing, and rewind the clock back to 2009 to take a closer look at that season’s IPL.
Former Test batsman and former Pakistan coach Javed Miandad smelled a rat when the tournament was going on. He claimed that match-fixing was occurring: “Too many teams are losing matches from winning positions”, he said. We crunched the numbers to reveal a string of unlikely outcomes in the 2009 IPL. Keeping reading after the jump.
It’s been nearly three years since international Twenty20 cricket kicked off in earnest, with the 2007 World Twenty20. And over five years have passed since the very first match, a trans-Tasman encounter in February 2005. In that time, which teams have adjusted well to the 20-over game? And which ones are still struggling to understand the format?
One thing is clear, even without looking at the data. Twenty20 levels the playing field — with the shorter matches, it’s easier for a Zimbabwe to surprise a team like Australia. But, as is my wont, I ended up running the numbers to compare a team’s ODI batting performance from 2006 to 2009, with its batting performance in Twenty20 matches over the same period.
The Duckworth-Lewis system comes in handy here. It provides a proven way to judge what the 20-over equivalent of a particular 50-over score is. The magic number is 58.6% (see this post for more info on D-L). That is, in a T20 innings, a team has 58.6% of the resources it has in a 50-over innings. That means that an ODI score of 300 is roughly equivalent to a Twenty20 score around 180, which sits well with my intuition. We can look at the equivalent Twenty20 scores for some ODI teams, and then compare to that team’s actual Twenty20 scores.
Team
Avg ODI Score (95% interval)
Predicted T20 Range
Actual T20 Avg
Australia
254
284
149
166
166
England
221
256
129
150
162
India
253
293
148
172
158
New Zealand
237
273
139
160
156
Pakistan
235
274
138
161
163
South Africa
251
298
147
175
169
Sri Lanka
241
267
141
157
156
West Indies
211
252
124
148
167
Overall, every team except India exceeds the median of the predicted T20 range — perhaps there’s something systematic about D-L underestimating the Twenty20 scores. Maybe the ODI model doesn’t map well to the T20 format. Or maybe Twenty20 specialists like Kieron Pollard are adapting to the format better than the ODI regulars.
Twenty20 has been a boost especially to the weaker ODI teams (England, West Indies). Both of them comfortably surpass the Duckworth-Lewis prediction in T20s. If you have any explanations for this, please post them in the comments.
Two possibilities I can think of:
Duckworth-Lewis is just underestimating the prediction. One big thing the system doesn’t take into account is the strength of individual players. In a 20-over match, a single innings from a Gayle or a Pietersen can take the team to a good score, whereas ODI are slightly more of a team effort.
Perhaps it’s just that the styles of batsmen like Pollard are suited to the wham-bam game, and can’t easily be adapted to play a 50 or 100-ball innings. This would undermine my methodology of predicting Twenty20 scores from ODI data.
Alternate Title: A Brief Lesson in How to Die Without Dignity on the Cricket Pitch
Number 5: Rajasthan Royals vs. Kolkata Knight Riders, Eden Gardens, Kolkata, 17 April 2010
We start with what could be excused as the regrettable yet fairly idiotic faux pas of an ex-rookie batsman, boldly in search for his puzzlingly elusive big break. Paras Dogra comes out to bat at number seven, at a time when the Royals could use the odd extra run, to put it mildly. Having amassed a measly 103 runs by the sixteenth over, we see glimpses of Warne stoically praying to the mercurial gods of T20 cricket to shower their blessings in the form of much-needed runs on the Royals’ threadbare board. Dogra gets off the mark with a couple of shaky singles—somewhat dismissible as the unavoidable result of the adjustment period.
Then comes the rub—Murali Karthik bowls an absolute stunner, pitched just outside the line of leg stump to turn plumly towards that mystifying middle stump. And Dogra is apparently dumbfounded by this little man’s hop skip and jump, because he misses the ball entirely, and decides instead that it’s time for this mute Tarzan to call his Jane by reverse-swinging his bat wildly in a seemingly ferocious display of strength, only to topple in a hapless mess to his left as the ball happily hits the wicket. As he scrambles to gather his skirts, an unruffled Karthik casually completes his run up, deciding to let out an indulgent smile at the very end. Let’s just say, we know who got the girl.
Number 4: Chennai Super Kings vs. Delhi Daredevils, Feroz Shah Kotla, Delhi, 19 March 2010
There are run outs and there are run outs. Miscommunication is an inexcusable yet fairly common vice that batsmen have fondly harbored since time immemorial, ranging from shoddy hand signals, fatally misplaced assumptions and even the odd unheard call (which, to some extent, is pardonable in the IPL, given the blaring trumpets, screaming fans and deafening Bollywood music echoing off of the pavilions). But then, there are run outs of a different variety—those elicited by an overly optimistic sprightly batsman who just must leave his crease in search for greener pastures, regardless of whether he has averted the ball from the danger zone.
Case in point: After a solid start for the Super Kings with 21 runs on the board by the end of the second over, Parthiv Patel is clearly not satisfied, decides he can wait no more and makes a dash for a run where there is none. Having faced a killer yorker delivered by Dirk Nannes, he somehow comes to the conclusion that stealing a run while the ball ambles lazily right in front of him is a revolutionary idea that he will look to patent after this match. Perhaps his excitement to etch an indelible mark in the history of cricketing gaffes rendered him strangely light-footed at the thought that he may actually be known for being more than just India’s most underdeveloped-looking opening batsman. In the end, AB De Villiers snatches the ball and terminates Patel’s short, yet fleetingly sweet innings. It’s all right Patel; at least you can run back to the dressing room uninterrupted?
Number 3: Match 47: Delhi Daredevil vs. Mumbai Indians, Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai, 13 April 2010
Paul Collingwood pays tribute to Patel’s breathtakingly inspiring dismissal and decides he too wants to run defiantly, against all odds, and against any bastion of reason. But he wants to elevate the plane of indisputable idiocy—with four wickets down and an asking rate of 10.1 runs per over, the Daredevils are struggling to meet their target, and Collingwood enters in response to their desperate cry for rescue. Sadly for the red-bottomed men in blue, Collingwood’s nervous tick gets the better of him. After hastily failing in his attempt to put away the ball towards the leg side, he scampers off in a fit of defiance anyway, despite a clear vision of a rapidly approaching Kieron Pollard on a mission to displace his bails. Somewhere, Collingwood joins Patel in a land unknown, where the pain of broken promises to save one’s wicket is but a dwindling memory, and where the hills are alive with the sweet sound of their scampering, unfettered feet.
Number 2: Kings XI Punjab vs. Kolkata Knight Riders, Mohali, Chandigarh, 27 March 2010
Kumar Sangakkara reveals his penchant for impulsively breaking out into dainty pirouettes on the cricket pitch in this particularly befuddling dismissal. Having finally attaining double figures in a tournament that hadn’t done much for him so far in the batting department, the Kings XI skipper has comfortably made 30 runs, when he is also regrettably overtaken by a fleeting sensation of cerebral failure. As most batsmen are wont to do in these mentally paralyzing situations, he makes the lamentable decision to go for a reverse sweep—and no surprises when his attempt falls flat (literally) and he gets stumped by the KKR keeper. But what makes this dismissal exceptionally tragic (other than the fact that he completely misses the ball despite having been on the crease for almost half the innings) is the poignancy with he rhythmically sacrifices his crucial wicket. He sets aside any manly inhibitions he may never have possessed, and lets his lumbering body gracefully rotate with the pitiful disorientation of a bloated swan. He may now be seen coaching his esteemed underlings on how to perfect this routine at a cricket pitch near you.
Number 1: Match 1: Kolkata Knight Riders vs. Deccan Chargers, DY Patil, Mumbai, 12 March 2010
And now, the single most mind-bogglingly dumbfounding dismissal in this year’s IPL: Rohit Sharma’s unforgettably baffling shot in the tournament’s inaugural match—a shot so utterly perplexing that it inspired the noble endeavor of this humble blog post. Sharma decides to gift Angelo Matthews his first wicket of the series by briskly swinging his bat in a most bizarre manner straight towards a fielder at mid-off. How can this shot be described? Is he playing tennis? Is he swatting a fly? Unclear. What is clear is that Sharma threw away his wicket and the Chargers’ last chance at chasing their target towards victory. And to add insult to injury, watch as Sharma takes the walk of shame back to the dressing room. Is he solemnly reflecting over a momentary lapse of consciousness, you suggest? But nay! Sharma’s defiant practice strokes scream, “Watch me swing the bat stylishly as I show the world what I actually meant to do!” Indeed, Sharma’s disastrous shot pioneered what would be the first of many catastrophically comic slip-ups that this year’s IPL had to offer. Thank you?
The Mumbai Indians failed to chase down 169 runs to win the DLF IPL trophy. If you’re wondering where it all went wrong, you can find out here — in excruciating detail.
Fans were screaming for Pollard to come in when Nayar fell in the 12th over, as the required run rate approached two runs per ball. But instead, a promotion for Harbhajan Singh baffled pundits and fans alike. Mumbai continued to slip, losing Harbhajan, Tendulkar, and Tiwary in the next 3 overs. Just five overs left, only 5 wickets in hand, and nearly 14 runs an over required — surely it’s the time to send in your most destructive batsman? Nope, instead, we saw JP Duminy come out of the Mumbai dugout. Kieron Pollard finally came in at No. 8, with just 3 overs left, and the game all but lost.
With some help from our friends Messers Duckworth and Lewis, we can see where exactly Mumbai slipped up. I’ve defined a measure called “Winnability”, to measure the strength of a team’s position in the 2nd innings of a run chase. It’s pretty simple — if the chasing team has a winnability of 100, it is at a par score, with exactly enough resources in hand to hit the target in the remaining overs. If the winnability gets above 100, the team bowling in the second innings has the advantage. Basically, if the game was stopped at that point, the bowling team would win by D-L. The situation is exactly reversed with winnability below 100. For reference, no chasing team has ever overcome a winnability of over 150 in the IPL or World Twenty20; even a winnability above 130 is quite a tough ask for the chasing team.
(Continue reading below the graph)
As you can see from the figure above, the Mumbai Indians were on the back foot from the first ball. A slow run rate meant that the Chennai Super Kings had the advantage during the Powerplay overs. Indeed, by the halfway point, Mumbai were facing an uphill battle, which led to desperate shots, and a desperate promotion for the Turbanator. Wickets tumbled at a regular rate, thanks to some great fielding by Raina and Vijay. By the end of the 16th over, winnability had crept above 150, which meant Mumbai were all but out of it.
Pollard came in at the start of the 18th over, with winnability over 190. The game had already been decided at that point, for all practical purposes. Even KP’s lusty blows off Doug Bollinger, 22 runs off the over in all, only brought winnability down to 167.
Here’s the bottom line: Mumbai’s slow run rate in the first ten overs put them at a serious disadvantage, and the flurry of wickets in overs 11 to 15 sealed their fate. After that, not even the might of Kieron Pollard could save them. The match had already been lost before the big man strode to the crease.
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Well folks, this is it. The IPL has come down to these last three games: Chennai v. Punjab, Delhi v. Deccan, and Mumbai v. Kolkata. With Mumbai & Bangalore in for sure, and Rajasthan & Punjab out for sure, 4 teams are contending for 2 spots. There’s a good chance things could be decided today itself, with the Mumbai-Kolkata match becoming a formality. Kolkata must win decisively to have even a chance, and after tomorrow’s games, they’ll know exactly what they need to do. Things will revolve around the outcome of the game between CSK and the King XI Punjab, so let’s look at the scenarios.
If Chennai beat Punjab …
Chennai will go through, along with the winner of Delhi-Deccan. Kolkata have no chance
If Chennai lose to Punjab …
Chennai are definitely out, and the winner of Delhi-Deccan is definitely through. If Deccan lose to Delhi, and Kolkata beat Mumbai badly enough the next day, Kolkata could grab the fourth slot. However, if Deccan beat Delhi, then it’s likely that both Deccan & Delhi will go through, thanks to Delhi’s strong NRR.
What each team needs to do:
Delhi: Either win, or hope Punjab beat Chennai.
Deccan: Either win, or hope that Punjab beat Chennai and Kolkata lose to Mumbai
Chennai: Win. End of story.
Kolkata: Hope and pray. Both results need to go their way today (Chennai beat Punjab, and Delhi beat Deccan by a big margin), and then they have to pull off a big win of their own against the top dogs of IPL 3, the Mumbai Indians.
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In the past two days, Bangalore have beaten Rajasthan, virtually ensuring their qualification, and Delhi moved closer to clinching a spot by toughing it out in a low-scoring duel versus Chennai. Only in theory is it possible for Bangalore to not make it — their net run rate is so high, with one game left to spare, that it’d take a defeat of huge proportions to push it below 0.200. For Bangalore to fall out of the top 4, they’d need to be overtaken by Rajasthan, Deccan or Kolkata, all of which have net run rates below -0.400. In short, that’s not happening. Congrats, Bangalore fans, your “Test team” is through for the second straight year!
Delhi continue to do just enough to qualify. Once comfortably situated in 2nd, they dropped three games on the trot, before beating Chennai to stay on track for the semifinals. They’re an 87.5% chance to make it for an unprecedented third straight year. Delhi don’t play again until the 18th, so they’ll know exactly what they need to do going into that game versus Deccan. If Deccan beat Punjab tomorrow, and Chennai do the same on the 18th, Delhi will need to beat Deccan on the 18th. If either of those teams loses to Punjab, then Delhi are through regardless of their result versus Deccan.
Tomorrow’s Game:
Another must-win game for Deccan, and more net practice for Punjab. If Deccan lose, Delhi are almost certainly through, and Deccan are left to hope that Chennai & Rajasthan lose, and then they beat Delhi on the 18th. But if Deccan win, they’ll have a 63% chance of advancing, and can clinch it on their own by beating Delhi.
There’s still a small chance (3.1%) a team can sneak into 4th place with just 12 points, but it’s far more likely (96.1%) that 14 points will be needed. So Chennai & Rajasthan both have must-win last games. Thankfully those games are against Punjab & Kolkata respectively, the bottom two teams in the table. While 14 points will likely be necessary to end up in the top 4, that alone is not sufficient — it’s probable that multiple teams end up on 14 points, and fight it out over net run rate. If a team wants to grab a semifinal spot without depending on that lottery, it needs 16 points. Chennai and Rajasthan can’t get there, so their qualification is not in their hands alone — they can both win their last game and still find themselves sitting out. Deccan however, have two games in hand, so if they win both, they’re through without worrying about net run rate.
Here’s the updated table (after the game on Thursday, April 15):
Another update to my earlier post on the teams’ semifinal chances, based on the results of today’s game. Deccan stayed alive by beating Bangalore — they now have a 30% chance of going through, still behind Chennai’s 39.6%. How can Deccan, with 12 points and 2 games in hand, still have less chance of qualifying than Chennai who have only 10 points, albeit with 3 games in hand? The answer lies in net run rate. My simulation suggests that there is a 90% chance that the 4th place team will have 14 points, and (independently) a 79% chance that the fifth place team will end up with 14 points. That means that net run rate will most likely determine who goes through. And Deccan are quite far behind Chennai on that metric. Of course, they could surprise everyone (and my model) by winning their last games so decisively that their net run rate crosses Chennai’s; not likely, though. So Deccan may well need 16 points for the semis, unless some of the other teams choke.
The good news is that 16 points will see Deccan through. And not just Deccan. The probability of the 5th place team having less than 16 points is 99.8% — in other words, rack up 16 points and you’re basically on your way to the semifinals. Each team except Punjab can reach 16 points if they perform well enough over their last games. So each team still controls its own destiny: Win all the rest of your games, and a semifinal spot is (nearly) guaranteed.
Keep reading for a preview of how tomorrow’s games may affect the standings.
Quick update to yesterday’s post on the teams’ semifinal chances, based on the results of today’s games. Rajasthan are the main movers, with their loss to Mumbai bringing their qualification probability down to 49.8%. Chennai are the beneficiaries of that move, and now have a 40.3% chance of making it through. I also added a slightly more sophisticated way of accounting for changes in net run rate with wins/losses, so these new numbers should be more accurate. Factoring in today’s results, its increasingly likely (86%) that 14 points will be needed to qualify for the semifinals.
Delhi’s loss to Punjab doesn’t change much for either team. Punjab still have about a much of a chance of going forward as Chris Martin does of hitting a Test century — mathematically possible, but not even worth mentioning. Delhi too are still in a strong position, though their chances dropped from 89% to 83%. Even if they lose their third match on the trot to Mumbai on Tuesday, they’ll still have an over 70% chance of going through. That’s what a strong early season and a healthy net run rate does for you.
The round-robin stage of the IPL is drawing to a tense conclusion. While Mumbai are almost certainly in, and Punjab are almost certainly out, the fate of the other six teams is very much up in the air. There are 13 games left to play, and a number of possible outcomes. So, I ran a simulation that calculates all 8192 ways the last 13 games could finish up (assuming no ties), and assessed each team’s position in each of those 8192 cases, breaking ties on the current net run rate. Without further ado, here are the results:
Team
Probability of Qualifying
Current Points
Mumbai Indians
99.0%
14
Delhi Daredevils
89.4%
12
Bangalore Royal Challengers
83.5%
12
Rajasthan Royals
64.7%
12
Chennai Superkings
31.6%
10
Kolkata Knight Riders
17.9%
10
Deccan Chargers
13.8%
10
Kings XI Punjab
0.0%
6
Rajasthan, despite being level with Bangalore on points, are less assured of going through, thanks to a weak net run rate (NRR). Meanwhile, a strong net run rate could see Chennai through if they can gain a game on Rajasthan. The following chart shows the number of points that will be needed to qualify for the semifinals.
Here is an interesting paper by James, Carré, and Haake. They build a Newtonian model of what happens when a cricket ball bounces on a pitch. It turns out that the “pace” of a pitch (ie, what percent of velocity a ball retains after bouncing) can be predicted fairly well by this model, which uses some physical pitch measurements as parameters.
Tomorrow’s Game:
The round-robin stage of the IPL is drawing to a tense conclusion. While Mumbai are almost certainly in, and Punjab are almost certainly out, the fate of the other six teams is very much up in the air. There are 13 games left to play, and a number of possible outcomes. So, I ran a simulation that calculates all 8192 ways the last 13 games could finish up (assuming no ties), and assessed each team’s position in each of those 8192 cases, breaking ties on the current net run rate. Without further ado, here are the results: