Australia vs New Zealand: Meh. The World Cup: Double Meh

Against the Spin presents another guest post by G.  We can’t afford Andy Zaltzman, so this is the next best thing.

Popular wisdom states that a watchable cricket match requires at least one of the following three ingredients:

a)      Good batting.

b)      Good bowling.

c)       A streaker, or a general smattering of attractive scantily clad people in the crowd.

Societal norms and subcontinental musculature being what they are, the chances of deriving any enjoyment from (c) are obviously pretty limited as far as this World Cup goes. Viewers are thus required to get their jollies from the actions of the assorted leather flingers and willow wielders plying their trade.

Given that this is the WORLD Cup (unlike with cricket’s American cousin, the modifier actually means something here), ostensibly featuring the best that this great game has to offer, one reasons that this cannot be the worst thing.  This rationale serves particularly well when contemplating some of the league matches featured in this tournament.  Consider, as you are watching the tantalizing Canada vs. Zimbabwe game this Monday, the fact that the players involved represent the cream of the world’s cricketing crop, and would be among the first names penciled onto a team sheet if cricket-playing life were ever to be discovered elsewhere in this universe, and then invited over for a friendly 121-a-side game.

I must admit, though, that this thought does little to assuage a growing desire to rip my right arm off for want of something to throw at the screen right now, about 30 overs into the Australia-New Zealand game.  At this point, New Zealand are 144 for 7, with Vettori and McCullum-the-younger at the crease, which would ostensibly point to a comprehensive demolition job by Tait and Lee and company.  In reality, the bowling has been supremely mediocre.  The best bowler on show, Lee, hasn’t had a wicket up to this point, while Johnson has two despite bowling his regular allocation of absolute tripe.  The scoreline owes primarily to some absolutely pedestrian batting from the Kiwi top order, fishing outside off and generally displaying all the situational awareness of lemmings on meth.  With the exception of a couple of snorters from Tait, there have been no incredible displays of skill, no exquisite cover drives, no searing Shastri-sanctioned tracer bullets threatening to rearrange teeth or toes.

What makes it all the worse was that the writing was on the wall as early as the fifteenth over, current cricketing mores being what they are.  With five wickets down for 60 odd within the second Powerplay, in the face of some average Aussie bowling and with a decently deep if not hugely talented Kiwi batting lineup, even the least astute of viewers could have figured out that NZ would just look to last the fifty overs from there, maybe try to hang around and post around 200, and that Australia would be content to let them, reasonably secure in their ability to chase down the runs. There would be no stirring counterattacks, no fightback worth the name, no real attempt by either team to really force the pace.  A classic case, in all, of a reasonably resistible force meeting a sufficiently moveable object, and then both of them sitting around going ‘meh’.

I don’t think I am alone in saying that I would much rather watch an absolute batting capitulation for a double digit score, or a wanton 400+ run fest, than a game like this, headed for mediocrity within the first hour itself.  Hell, I would rather watch the Australia team of the early 2000s murder the Happy Nappy Nursery XI than a supposedly even contest like the game today, purely because it is much more important to me that there be high-quality cricket on display than two teams be ‘evenly matched’ (the confluence of both obviously being the ideal).  Nor does the format matter, really; ultimately, cricketing skill transcends the format.  One of my most enduring cricket memories is still from the first match of the 2009 IPL, when Shane Warne landed the perfect legspinner to Dravid in his first over, just missing the outside edge of his textbook forward defense.  Dravid looked down the pitch at the bowler with a slight nod, and his Tubbiness shrugged and walked back up to his mark. Two supremely talented artists in the twilight of their careers, strutting their stuff.  The stuff of legends.

A first innings target of 207 could yet set the tone for an entertaining enough second innings chase.  To be completely honest, I yearn for the early 1990s when 200-250 was a decent score, and generally guaranteed an interesting run chase, and this game definitely fulfils that particular requirement.  Whatever the scorecard might say though, there was no contest here in the first innings, no fight, no high quality bowling to rip the heart out of a batting lineup before a stirring rearguard.  It was merely one team batting poorly at the beginning, and then the other not really trying to press on, both just getting on with their jobs and drawing a day’s wage. Just another day at the office. Ho hum.

Hopefully Australia will either make absolute mincemeat of this, or the Kiwi bowlers will fight back to claw their way back into the game and set up a tight finish. Not really holding my breath though, Australia should chase this down solidly, sensibly and above all tediously, with time to spare.

Evidence of match-fixing in IPL 2009

The cricket world is up in arms at the latest allegations of fixing.  That ugly beast, which many hoped was well and buried at the start of the decade, has reared its head again.  This time, the crime is spot-fixing, more subtle than match-fixing, and much harder to detect.  A no-ball here or there is easily overlooked.  A thrown match is much harder to hide.  And the IPL 2009 didn’t hide – there were allegations of fixing swirling around, but no proof.  Let’s rewind the clock back to 2009, and take a closer look.

Former Test batsman and former Pakistan coach Javed Miandad smelled a rat when the tournament was going on.  He claimed that match-fixing was occurring: “Too many teams are losing matches from winning positions”, he said.  We crunched the numbers to reveal a string of unlikely outcomes in the 2009 IPL.  Keeping reading after the jump.

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Twenty20: Cricket’s great equalizer

It’s been nearly three years since international Twenty20 cricket kicked off in earnest, with the 2007 World Twenty20.  And over five years have passed since the very first match, a trans-Tasman encounter in February 2005.  In that time, which teams have adjusted well to the 20-over game?  And which ones are still struggling to understand the format?

One thing is clear, even without looking at the data.  Twenty20 levels the playing field — with the shorter matches, it’s easier for a Zimbabwe to surprise a team like Australia.  But, as is my wont, I ended up running the numbers to compare a team’s ODI batting performance from 2006 to 2009, with its batting performance in Twenty20 matches over the same period.

The Duckworth-Lewis system comes in handy here.  It provides a proven way to judge what the 20-over equivalent of a particular 50-over score is.  The magic number is 58.6% (see this post for more info on D-L).  That is, in a T20 innings, a team has 58.6% of the resources it has in a 50-over innings.  That means that an ODI score of 300 is roughly equivalent to a Twenty20 score around 180, which sits well with my intuition.  We can look at the equivalent Twenty20 scores for some ODI teams, and then compare to that team’s actual Twenty20 scores.

Team Avg ODI Score (95% interval) Predicted T20 Range Actual T20 Avg
Australia 254 284 149 166 166
England 221 256 129 150 162
India 253 293 148 172 158
New Zealand 237 273 139 160 156
Pakistan 235 274 138 161 163
South Africa 251 298 147 175 169
Sri Lanka 241 267 141 157 156
West Indies 211 252 124 148 167

Overall, every team except India exceeds the median of the predicted T20 range — perhaps there’s something systematic about D-L underestimating the Twenty20 scores.  Maybe the ODI model doesn’t map well to the T20 format.  Or maybe Twenty20 specialists like Kieron Pollard are adapting to the format better than the ODI regulars.

Twenty20 has been a boost especially to the weaker ODI teams (England, West Indies).  Both of them comfortably surpass the Duckworth-Lewis prediction in T20s.  If you have any explanations for this, please post them in the comments.

Two possibilities I can think of:

  1. Duckworth-Lewis is just underestimating the prediction.  One big thing the system doesn’t take into account is the strength of individual players.  In a 20-over match, a single innings from a Gayle or a Pietersen can take the team to a good score, whereas ODI are slightly more of a team effort.
  2. Perhaps it’s just that the styles of batsmen like Pollard are suited to the wham-bam game, and can’t easily be adapted to play a 50 or 100-ball innings.  This would undermine my methodology of predicting Twenty20 scores from ODI data.

IPL 2010 Final Analysis: Where it went wrong for Mumbai, and why Pollard’s effort was too late

The Mumbai Indians failed to chase down 169 runs to win the DLF IPL trophy. If you’re wondering where it all went wrong, you can find out here — in excruciating detail.

Fans were screaming for Pollard to come in when Nayar fell in the 12th over, as the required run rate approached two runs per ball.  But instead, a promotion for Harbhajan Singh baffled pundits and fans alike.  Mumbai continued to slip, losing Harbhajan, Tendulkar, and Tiwary in the next 3 overs.  Just five overs left, only 5 wickets in hand, and nearly 14 runs an over required — surely it’s the time to send in your most destructive batsman?  Nope, instead, we saw JP Duminy come out of the Mumbai dugout.  Kieron Pollard finally came in at No. 8, with just 3 overs left, and the game all but lost.

With some help from our friends Messers Duckworth and Lewis, we can see where exactly Mumbai slipped up.  I’ve defined a measure called “Winnability”, to measure the strength of a team’s position in the 2nd innings of a run chase.  It’s pretty simple — if the chasing team has a winnability of 100, it is at a par score, with exactly enough resources in hand to hit the target in the remaining overs.  If the winnability gets above 100, the team bowling in the second innings has the advantage.  Basically, if the game was stopped at that point, the bowling team would win by D-L.  The situation is exactly reversed with winnability below 100.  For reference, no chasing team has ever overcome a winnability of over 150 in the IPL or World Twenty20; even a winnability above 130 is quite a tough ask for the chasing team.

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Winnability during the 2nd innings of the IPL 2010 Final: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings

As you can see from the figure above, the Mumbai Indians were on the back foot from the first ball.  A slow run rate meant that the Chennai Super Kings had the advantage during the Powerplay overs.  Indeed, by the halfway point, Mumbai were facing an uphill battle, which led to desperate shots, and a desperate promotion for the Turbanator.  Wickets tumbled at a regular rate, thanks to some great fielding by Raina and Vijay.  By the end of the 16th over, winnability had crept above 150, which meant Mumbai were all but out of it.

Pollard came in at the start of the 18th over, with winnability over 190.  The game had already been decided at that point, for all practical purposes.  Even KP’s lusty blows off Doug Bollinger, 22 runs off the over in all, only brought winnability down to 167.

Here’s the bottom line: Mumbai’s slow run rate in the first ten overs put them at a serious disadvantage, and the flurry of wickets in overs 11 to 15 sealed their fate.  After that, not even the might of Kieron Pollard could save them. The match had already been lost before the big man strode to the crease.

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IPL 2010 Semifinals: Delhi, Deccan, Chennai – “Win and you’re in”

Well folks, this is it.  The IPL has come down to these last three games: Chennai v. Punjab, Delhi v. Deccan, and Mumbai v. Kolkata.  With Mumbai & Bangalore in for sure, and Rajasthan & Punjab out for sure, 4 teams are contending for 2 spots.  There’s a good chance things could be decided today itself, with the Mumbai-Kolkata match becoming a formality.  Kolkata must win decisively to have even a chance, and after tomorrow’s games, they’ll know exactly what they need to do.  Things will revolve around the outcome of the game between CSK and the King XI Punjab, so let’s look at the scenarios.

If Chennai beat Punjab …

Chennai will go through, along with the winner of Delhi-Deccan. Kolkata have no chance

If Chennai lose to Punjab …

Chennai are definitely out, and the winner of Delhi-Deccan is definitely through. If Deccan lose to Delhi, and Kolkata beat Mumbai badly enough the next day, Kolkata could grab the fourth slot. However, if Deccan beat Delhi, then it’s likely that both Deccan & Delhi will go through, thanks to Delhi’s strong NRR.

What each team needs to do:

Delhi:  Either win, or hope Punjab beat Chennai.

Deccan: Either win, or hope that Punjab beat Chennai and Kolkata lose to Mumbai

Chennai: Win.  End of story.

Kolkata:  Hope and pray.  Both results need to go their way today (Chennai beat Punjab, and Delhi beat Deccan by a big margin), and then they have to pull off a big win of their own against the top dogs of IPL 3, the Mumbai Indians.

These IPL posts have been getting a lot of readers from Google, so I hope you folks are enjoying the statistical slant.  If you’d like to receive future posts by email, you can subscribe below.


 

IPL 2010 Semifinals: Bangalore Qualify, Kolkata Nearly Out

In the past two days, Bangalore have beaten Rajasthan, virtually ensuring their qualification, and Delhi moved closer to clinching a spot by toughing it out in a low-scoring duel versus Chennai.  Only in theory is it possible for Bangalore to not make it — their net run rate is so high, with one game left to spare, that it’d take a defeat of huge proportions to push it below 0.200.  For Bangalore to fall out of the top 4, they’d need to be overtaken by Rajasthan, Deccan or Kolkata, all of which have net run rates below -0.400.  In short, that’s not happening.  Congrats, Bangalore fans, your “Test team” is through for the second straight year!

Delhi continue to do just enough to qualify.  Once comfortably situated in 2nd, they dropped three games on the trot, before beating Chennai to stay on track for the semifinals.  They’re an 87.5% chance to make it for an unprecedented third straight year.  Delhi don’t play again until the 18th, so they’ll know exactly what they need to do going into that game versus Deccan.  If Deccan beat Punjab tomorrow, and Chennai do the same on the 18th, Delhi will need to beat Deccan on the 18th.  If either of those teams loses to Punjab, then Delhi are through regardless of their result versus Deccan.

Tomorrow’s Game:

Another must-win game for Deccan, and more net practice for Punjab.  If Deccan lose, Delhi are almost certainly through, and Deccan are left to hope that Chennai & Rajasthan lose, and then they beat Delhi on the 18th.  But if Deccan win, they’ll have a 63% chance of advancing, and can clinch it on their own by beating Delhi.

There’s still a small chance (3.1%) a team can sneak into 4th place with just 12 points, but it’s far more likely (96.1%) that 14 points will be needed.  So Chennai & Rajasthan both have must-win last games.  Thankfully those games are against Punjab & Kolkata respectively, the bottom two teams in the table.  While 14 points will likely be necessary to end up in the top 4, that alone is not sufficient — it’s probable that multiple teams end up on 14 points, and fight it out over net run rate.  If a team wants to grab a semifinal spot without depending on that lottery, it needs 16 points.  Chennai and Rajasthan can’t get there, so their qualification is not in their hands alone — they can both win their last game and still find themselves sitting out.  Deccan however, have two games in hand, so if they win both, they’re through without worrying about net run rate.

Here’s the updated table (after the game on Thursday, April 15):

Team Probability of Qualifying
Change Current Points
Mumbai Indians 100.0% unch
18
Bangalore Royal Challengers 100.0% +25.6% 14
Delhi Daredevils 87.5% +4.5% 14
Chennai Superkings 53.1% +13.5% 12
Deccan Chargers 37.5% +7.5% 12
Rajasthan Royals 18.8% 31.2% 12
Kolkata Knight Riders 3.1% 19.9% 10
Kings XI Punjab 0.0% unch. 8

IPL 2010 Semifinals: It all comes down to Net Run Rate

Another update to my earlier post on the teams’ semifinal chances, based on the results of today’s game. Deccan stayed alive by beating Bangalore — they now have a 30% chance of going through, still behind Chennai’s 39.6%.  How can Deccan, with 12 points and 2 games in hand, still have less chance of qualifying than Chennai who have only 10 points, albeit with 3 games in hand?  The answer lies in net run rate.  My simulation suggests that there is a 90% chance that the 4th place team will have 14 points, and (independently) a 79% chance that the fifth place team will end up with 14 points.  That means that net run rate will most likely determine who goes through.  And Deccan are quite far behind Chennai on that metric.  Of course, they could surprise everyone (and my model) by winning their last games so decisively that their net run rate crosses Chennai’s; not likely, though.  So Deccan may well need 16 points for the semis, unless some of the other teams choke.

The good news is that 16 points will see Deccan through.  And not just Deccan.  The probability of the 5th place team having less than 16 points is 99.8% — in other words, rack up 16 points and you’re basically on your way to the semifinals.  Each team except Punjab can reach 16 points if they perform well enough over their last games. So each team still controls its own destiny: Win all the rest of your games, and a semifinal spot is (nearly) guaranteed.

Keep reading for a preview of how tomorrow’s games may affect the standings.

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Race for the IPL Semifinals: Rajasthan stutter, Mumbai seal the deal

Quick update to yesterday’s post on the teams’ semifinal chances, based on the results of today’s games.  Rajasthan are the main movers, with their loss to Mumbai bringing their qualification probability down to 49.8%.  Chennai are the beneficiaries of that move, and now have a 40.3% chance of making it through.  I also added a slightly more sophisticated way of accounting for changes in net run rate with wins/losses, so these new numbers should be more accurate.  Factoring in today’s results, its increasingly likely (86%) that 14 points will be needed to qualify for the semifinals.

Delhi’s loss to Punjab doesn’t change much for either team.  Punjab still have about a much of a chance of going forward as Chris Martin does of hitting a Test century — mathematically possible, but not even worth mentioning.  Delhi too are still in a strong position, though their chances dropped from 89% to 83%.  Even if they lose their third match on the trot to Mumbai on Tuesday, they’ll still have an over 70% chance of going through.  That’s what a strong early season and a healthy net run rate does for you.

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IPL 2010: Predicting the Semifinalists

The round-robin stage of the IPL is drawing to a tense conclusion.  While Mumbai are almost certainly in, and Punjab are almost certainly out, the fate of the other six teams is very much up in the air.  There are 13 games left to play, and a number of possible outcomes.  So, I ran a simulation that calculates all 8192 ways the last 13 games could finish up (assuming no ties), and assessed each team’s position in each of those 8192 cases, breaking ties on the current net run rate.  Without further ado, here are the results:

Team Probability of Qualifying
Current Points
Mumbai Indians 99.0% 14
Delhi Daredevils 89.4% 12
Bangalore Royal Challengers 83.5% 12
Rajasthan Royals 64.7% 12
Chennai Superkings 31.6% 10
Kolkata Knight Riders 17.9% 10
Deccan Chargers 13.8% 10
Kings XI Punjab 0.0% 6

Rajasthan, despite being level with Bangalore on points, are less assured of going through, thanks to a weak net run rate (NRR).  Meanwhile, a strong net run rate could see Chennai through if they can gain a game on Rajasthan.  The following chart shows the number of points that will be needed to qualify for the semifinals.

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Predicting the playing character of cricket pitches

Here is an interesting paper by James, Carré, and Haake.  They build a Newtonian model of what happens when a cricket ball bounces on a pitch.  It turns out that the “pace” of a pitch (ie, what percent of velocity a ball retains after bouncing) can be predicted fairly well by this model, which uses some physical pitch measurements as parameters.

You can find the abstract of this paper at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/g551516250368338/.